Marriage equality could determine the outcome of the Canning by-election according to a poll showing high support for the issue among swing voters who are key to the final result.
A ReachTEL poll of 782 voters commissioned by Australian Marriage Equality and conducted on Thursday shows 62% of swing voters support marriage equality.
It also found swing voters are more likely than not to support a candidate who supports marriage equality.
Australian Marriage Equality West Australian director, Brian Greig, said,
“This by-election is on a knife edge and will be determined by 6.5% of voters who are undecided, almost two thirds of whom support marriage equality.”
“Marriage equality has the potential to decide the election outcome.”
Mr Greig said Liberal candidate, Andrew Hastie, has responded to an AME survey saying he does not support marriage equality legislation put forward by fellow Liberal, Warren Entsch.
“There is a clear difference between the Labor and Green candidates who strongly support marriage equality legislation and the Liberal who doesn’t.”
“We believe the results of the ReachTEL poll show this will disadvantage the Liberals and cost them votes.”
“In the three weeks leading up to the election we will be leafletting at key points, publishing ads highlighting the candidates’ positions and generally making sure undecided voters know which candidates share their support for marriage equality.”
The ReachTEL poll also found
– almost 50% of voters believe Tony Abbott has handled marriage equality poorly or very poorly, compared to 37.5% who believe he has handled it well
– more people support than oppose the reform: 46.9% versus 40.8%
Mr Greig said,
“Despite Canning being Liberal heartland, and one of the nation’s oldest and most socially conservative seats, there is stronger support for marriage equality than opposition, and overall voters rate Tony Abbott’s handling of the issue poorly.”
“If the 12% of voters who are undecided about marriage equality are divvied up in proportion to overall levels of support and opposition in the electorate, support for marriage equality rises to 53.5% with opposition at 46.5%.”
At the last election the Liberals won with a two party preferred vote of 61.8%, a margin that has now eroded to almost nothing. Canning was the electorate with the strongest ‘no’ vote at the Republican referendum.
For more information contact Brian Greig on 0407 776 961.
Further information on the poll is HERE
Author: Brian Greig
Publication: AME Media Release
Date: 29 August 2015