Seat-by-seat analysis shows big swings to ALP for backing gay marriage

Marriage equality advocates have sent all Labor Party National Conference delegates a list of electorates where Labor will pick up tens of thousands of votes if its supports marriage equality. (chart below, report here).

The list is based on Galaxy Research polling from October which shows a swing of up to 7.3% to Labor if it supports marriage equality – the equivalent of 1.2 million voters, including many existing Green voters.

The list is in response to a letter sent to delegates by the Australian Christian Lobby which claims Labor will lose votes in key marginal seats if it supports same-sex marriage.

Australian Marriage Equality National Convener, Alex Greenwich, described the ACL figures as “shonky”.

“The ACL has calculated how many people signed its petition from marginal Labor-held seats and then claimed this means these key seats are threatened, but it failed to indicate which way the people signing its petition will vote.”

“It’s fair to assume most people who sign Christian lobby petitions have no intention of ever voting Labor no matter what its stance on marriage equality may be.”

Mr Greenwich said the Galaxy-based figures provide a far more reliable measure of the electoral impact of Labor support for marriage equality.

“We know for a fact that Labor will pick up Green voters, particularly young ones, if it supports marriage equality.”

“When we look at the swing electorate-by-electorate we see that Labor can expect to tighten its hold on a large number of seats, and potentially win seats like Melbourne, Wentworth and Brisbane.”

“Even in the marginal seats identified by the ACL there are many thousands of voters ready and willing to swing behind Labor if it does the right thing at this weekend’s National Conference.”

“Marriage equality is clearly an electoral winner for Labor,” Mr Greenwich concluded.

The letter to delegates with the seat-by-seat analysis can be accessed here,  and includes seats where Labor can expect the strongest swings for supporting marriage equality as well as all the seats identified by the ACL showing Labor can also expect positive swings in these.

For more information contact Alex Greenwich on 0421 316 335.

Seat by seat analysis below and a report can be accessed here: