It would be nice to believe that the prime minister is pushing for a conscience vote on gay marriage at Labor’s national conference because her own conscience has gotten the better of her on this issue.

Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. Doing so is a deliberate sop to the left (or more cynically the right because they know it will fail), all the while ensuring that the issue dies a slow death and she maintains some conservative credentials by opposing gay marriage.

If Labor does support a conscience vote in parliament, as I suspect it will, Julia Gillard intends to vote against the motion, so as not to upset conservative voters. I do not for one second believe that she personally opposes gay marriage, even though as PM she has always maintained that position.

Why would she? Because she is a married woman in a traditional relationship who opposes the threat gay marriage might be to traditional institutions? Err, no. Gillard is in a de facto relationship.

Because religious convictions preclude her from supporting gay marriage? That can’t be it either, she is an atheist. Maybe the PM opposes gay marriage because of her ideological conservative outlook? Wrong again, she cut her teeth in the Labor left and has always been factionally aligned with the left of the ALP. I would take any odds on a bet that if the PM was strapped to a lie detector machine she would not pass it if she claimed her opposition to gay marriage is driven by personal convictions not base political survival instincts. I am sure her openly gay former chief of staff would agree.

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