Labor can expect a swing in its favour of 7.3 percent if it supports marriage equality a new national poll has found.
The poll by Galaxy Research found almost half of Green voters and a third of young voters would be more likely to vote Labor if it adopted a new policy allowing same-sex couples to marry.
The poll also found almost a quarter of voters who already support Labor will be stronger supporters if the Party backs marriage equality.
Australian Marriage Equality National Convener, Alex Greenwich, said the poll shows Labor will experience a net gain in votes by supporting marriage equality.
“By doing the right thing on marriage equality Labor can expect to be rewarded by voters, largely at the expense of the Greens”, Mr Greenwich said.
“For Labor, marriage equality is an electoral winner because it is a reform that will cost nothing, attract votes from other parties, and promote loyalty among existing voters.”
“With polls consistently showing support for marriage equality is almost twice that of the Labor Party, the ALP could do worse than to allow the popularity of marriage equality to rub off on it.”
According to the Galaxy poll, the overwhelming majority of Coalition voters will not be turned off Labor if it supports marriage equality.
“The is a small minority of Coalition voters who will look more dimly on Labor if it supports marriage equality but they are hard-core opponents of the issue who Labor can never hope to win over”, Mr Greenwich said.
“Support for marriage equality will enable the ALP to reach out to large numbers of winnable voters, while not alienating those who are largely indifferent to the issue.”
Mr Greenwich said Labor cannot expect to pick up nearly as many Green and young voters if, as flagged in recent reports, it only allows a conscience vote on the issue instead of changing its policy to fully support reform.
“If reports are correct and the Prime Minister is about to announce her support for a conscience vote on marriage equality, it shows the campaign for equality is working”, Mr Greenwich said.
“Like many members of the Labor Party we want the Party to go further than a conscience vote and adopt a binding policy in favour of marriage equality at its national conference in December.”
“The Prime Minister’s engagement with the issue will encourage us to seek such a policy.”
“If the ALP settles for a conscience vote it will limit the ALP’s ability to deliver this historic reform, and will have much more limited appeal to Green and young voters than a binding party policy.”
POLL FACTS AT A GLANCE:
The national Galaxy research poll of 1009 registered voters was commissioned by Australian Marriage Equality and conducted in October 2011.
It asked, “If the Labor Party officially supported same-sex marriage, would you be more likely to vote Labor, less likely to vote Labor, or would your vote not be affected?”
The key findings were:
- 47% of Green voters would be more likely to vote Labor (5% would be less likely leaving a net gain of 42%)
- 23% of Labor voters would be more likely to voter Labor (10% would be less likely leaving a net gain of 13%)
- 33% of 18-24 year olds would be more likely to vote Labor (12% would be less likely leaving a net gain of 21%)
- this would mean a total swing to Labor of 7.3%
- this would lift Labor’s support from 28% to 35%
Further details on the poll can be found here and a fact sheet on the polling can be found here.
Most polls have consistently shown about 60% support for marriage equality, with 75% agreeing the reform is inevitable. A poll by Roy Morgan showed support as high as 68%
For more information contact Alex Greenwich on 0421 316 335.
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for a piece by Alex Greenwich discussing the poll.
to watch further coverage by 6.30 with George Negus.