Reports out this morning suggest Julia Gillard’s staunch opposition to marriage equality is starting to give way.
For her to make such a conscience vote announcement before the ALP National Conference in December would be the best indication yet that the adoption of a policy in favour of marriage equality at that Conference is a not only possible but likely.
But what is forcing her to show her hand so early? I’m guessing her listening skills are improving.
Every State Labor leader, all but one State Labor Conference, many local Labor branches and even a State Labor Government have declared they want the party to say “I Do” to marriage equality.
62 per cent of Australians support it. 75 per cent expect it to happen. Wallaby flanker, David Pocock, has declared his support for it. Even Conservative UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, is paving the way for same-sex marriage in the UK.
Julia Gillard may think weakening her opposition to marriage equality by opting for a conscience vote helps her save face, or avoids a showdown at the Labor Conference.
But in fact it will do the opposite. Her announcement will be a huge victory for the many thousands of marriage equality supporters within the Labor Party who will, in turn, be encouraged to aim for a full policy change at the December Conference.
By laying out the conscience vote option now, and by associating it with her opposition to equality, the PM will give marriage equality supporters the time and ammunition they need to shoot down a conscience vote and focus Labor on what really needs to be debated in December, a binding marriage equality policy.
Since I started marriage equality campaigning I have never seen the kind of strong resolve within the Labor Party to deliver marriage equality as there is now.
A few weeks ago I sat in Tasmanian Parliament and watched the Labor Premier mock the Liberal Opposition Leader over his half-hearted anti-marriage equality stance.
This week numerous Labor MPs and Senators welcomed marriage equality supporters from around Australia into their offices with open arms and assurances of continued support.
Clearly the Prime Minister knows she needs to do something on marriage equality.
In the kind of panic that is caused by the 24 hour media cycle, as well as polls that show same-sex marriage is more than twice as popular as she is, Julia Gillard may next week show her hand.
If she does the challenge for the marriage equality campaigners inside and out of the Labor Party will be to make sure we aren’t fooled into thinking this is a fait accompli when in reality it will be a sign that our opponents’ resolve is weakening and that a change in Labor policy is now within our grasp.
This article was originally published on The Punch.